ASTEROID IMPACT SCORE
· 13.7% ·
2.7
/ 20
↑
+0.09 since yesterday
LOW
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MODEL BREAKDOWN
ChatGPT
1.0
- Current NEO catalog shows no imminent Earth-intersecting trajectories
- Survey completeness exceeds 95% for objects above 1km diameter
- DART mission success enhances kinetic impactor readiness
- International coordination mechanisms for planetary defense are established
- Southern Hemisphere survey gaps remain a potential observational risk
Claude
3.0
- Increased NEO survey completeness reduces untracked large object probability
- Recent DART mission demonstrates improved kinetic deflection capabilities
- Ongoing refinement of Apophis trajectory reduces near-term impact concerns
- Southern Hemisphere survey gaps remain potential unknown object risk
- Enhanced international tracking networks improve early detection probability
Gemini
N/A
Llama
6.0
- NASA CNEOS catalogs 878 PHOs with Earth-intersecting trajectories
- ESA NEOCC reports 23% survey incompleteness for 140m objects
- DART mission demonstrates kinetic impactor deflection capability
- Southern Hemisphere sky survey coverage gaps remain significant
- 2029 Apophis flyby provides calibration for impact probability modeling
DeepSeek
3.0
- Current NEO surveys achieve 95% completeness for 1km+ objects
- Only 40-50% of 140m+ objects cataloged in Southern Hemisphere
- No PHOs currently rated above Torino Scale 1
- DART confirmed kinetic deflection feasibility but scale-up untested
- Long-period comets remain observationally chaotic with short warning
Mistral
N/A
Qwen
0.0
- NASA CNEOS and ESA NEOCC catalogs show zero objects with Torino Scale >0 as of 2024 Q2 orbital solutions
- NEO survey completeness is 97.5% for objects ≥1 km and 84% for ≥140 m per 2023 NASA PDCO report
- No object in current catalog has a non-zero impact probability within 100 years per JPL Sentry-II v2.1 (2024 update)
- Southern Hemisphere observational gap is mitigated by ATLAS-Sutherland and upcoming Vera C. Rubin LSST southern sky coverage
- Tunguska-scale energy deposition events lack orbital traceback evidence linking them to undiscovered long-period NEOs
Gemma
6.0
- NEO survey completeness remains <95% for objects >140m, especially in Southern Hemisphere.
- 2023 DW’s initial risk assessment highlighted rapid probability shifts with limited data.
- Increasing reliance on non-US assets for follow-up observations introduces data latency.
- Political instability hinders long-term international defense funding commitments.
- Kinetic impactor development lacks redundancy beyond DART’s demonstrated capability.
Nvidia
0.0
- No known NEO with Torino Scale >0 as of latest CNEOS update (date). That's factual.
- Survey completeness for objects >140m estimated at 92% based on NEOWISE and Pan-STARRS data.
- DART mission demonstrated kinetic impact capability; Hera will validate momentum transfer, confirming deflection readiness.
- International planetary defense coordination via IAWN and SMPAG has established decision thresholds and communication protocols.
- Unexpected: Earth's gravitational focusing increases impact probability for retrograde objects, but current catalog shows none with retrograde high-inclination orbits crossing Earth.
Arcee
N/A
Grok
N/A
Perplexity
2.0
- No known large NEO has non-zero Torino Scale rating; all catalogued impacts ruled out.
- Survey completeness exceeds 95% for >1 km asteroids, the primary civilization-scale impactors.
- ESA lists ~2,000 objects with non-zero chances, overwhelmingly sub-140 m, localized effects only.
- Mid-sized 140–300 m population ~70% undiscovered, yet expected impact frequency remains multi‑millennial.
- Long-period comets and southern-hemisphere survey gaps add background risk without identified specific threats.
Cohere
2.0
- No catalogued NEOs on Earth-intersecting trajectories above 140m diameter
- Survey completeness for 1km+ objects exceeds 95% globally
- DART mission success demonstrates kinetic impactor viability
- Southern Hemisphere sky survey gaps persist, limiting detection
- Apophis 2029 flyby refined, confirming no impact risk
Jamba
5.0
- NASA CNEOS catalog shows no 140m+ objects with non-zero impact probability.
- Survey completeness for 1km objects exceeds 95%, reducing undiscovered large-body risk.
- Southern Hemisphere survey gaps leave 140m-class objects potentially underdetected in some zones.
- DART mission demonstrated deflection feasibility, but operational readiness for rapid deployment remains untested.
- Historical analogues like Chelyabinsk airburst indicate low-probability high-consequence events require continuous monitoring.
Moonshot
2.0
- 2024 QV3 Torino 1, 2024 MK2 Torino 1, both 140–300 m, ephemeris still converging
- Southern sky coverage gap persists: 35 % blind zone south of −30° declination
- 1 km completeness 94 %, 140 m completeness 42 % per NASA 2024 NEO stats
- DART kinetic impactor validated but only one spare launch window Falcon 9 Block 5
- 2024 QV3 next close approach 2034; delta-V deflection mass 2× current interceptor stock
AI DISAGREEMENT ANALYSIS
2.05
STD DEV
MODERATE CONSENSUS
BASED ON 11 MODEL RESPONSES
The primary divergence stems from varying interpretations of survey completeness, particularly for mid-sized near-Earth objects (140m-300m), where models like LLAMA and GEMMA assigned higher risk scores due to acknowledged detection gaps in the Southern Hemisphere. Methodological differences emerged in how models weighted observational uncertainties, with low-scoring models like QWEN and NVIDIA emphasizing current catalog clarity and zero Torino Scale threats, while higher-scoring models highlighted potential undetected population risks and the probabilistic nature of long-period cometary trajectories. Critical methodological distinctions centered on risk tolerance thresholds: conservative models prioritized current tracking capabilities and demonstrated planetary defense technologies like DART, whereas more cautious models emphasized residual uncertainties in NEO population characterization, particularly in under-surveyed celestial regions.
AI-GENERATED ANALYSIS — NOT AN OFFICIAL ASSESSMENT
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM
The Asteroid Impact Score (AIS) is an experimental daily assessment
aggregated from leading AI models.
Each model is independently asked to rate the current global asteroid impact threat on a scale of 0 to 20
and provide up to 5 specific reasons for its assessment.
The final score is the average of all valid responses.
This is not an official or governmental assessment.
It reflects the synthesised opinion of large language models based on their training and world knowledge.
Visit the [BRIEFING] page for more information.