HUMAN EXTINCTION SCORE
· 46.8% ·
9.4
/ 20
↓
-0.64 since yesterday
ELEVATED
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MODEL BREAKDOWN
ChatGPT
7.0
- AI development outpaces regulatory frameworks, increasing autonomous weapon risks
- Climate change accelerates biodiversity loss, impacting food security
- Geopolitical tensions strain nuclear non-proliferation treaties
- Water scarcity intensifies regional conflicts, destabilizing governance
- Cyberattacks threaten critical infrastructure resilience globally
Claude
12.0
- Accelerating AI capabilities outpacing global alignment and safety protocols
- Increasing nuclear tensions between major powers with reduced diplomatic buffers
- Cascading ecological collapse threatening global agricultural and water systems
- Emerging pandemic risks from zoonotic spillover and advanced biotechnology
- Declining institutional resilience against complex, multi-vector global threats
Gemini
N/A
Llama
14.0
- Nuclear arsenals expanding in multiple nations
- Pandemic preparedness declining globally
- Ecological collapse accelerating biodiversity loss
- AI safety research underfunded and fragmented
- Global governance fragmentation increasing
DeepSeek
6.0
- Nuclear modernization programs accelerating in 9 states
- AI governance fragmentation increasing catastrophic misalignment risks
- Crop yield declines exceeding IPCC worst-case projections since 2022
- Institutional collapse in 3 key biosecurity monitoring bodies
- Arctic methane release rates now doubling decade-on-cycle projections
Mistral
N/A
Qwen
11.0
- Global nuclear arsenal modernization programs now prioritize hypersonic delivery and AI-integrated C3 systems, reducing decision time to under 4 minutes.
- FAO reports 2023 global grain stock-to-use ratio at 28.1%, the lowest since 2011, with three major breadbaskets simultaneously experiencing compound climate stress.
- WHO’s 2024 Global Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System confirms carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales in 92% of national reporting systems, with no new class of broad-spectrum antibiotics approved since 2018.
- UNFCCC’s 2024 Synthesis Report confirms 3.7°C median end-of-century warming under current NDC implementation, exceeding all modeled thresholds for irreversible permafrost carbon feedback activation.
- Open-source AI model weights from four frontier labs now contain embedded stochastic weight matrices enabling emergent cross-task optimization without human-readable architecture documentation.
Gemma
11.0
- Global grain reserves are at historically low levels, increasing food system fragility.
- Nuclear doctrine shifts prioritize first-use scenarios, eroding deterrence stability.
- Biosecurity oversight lags exponential advances in dual-use biotechnology capabilities.
- AI model opacity hinders verification of safety protocols, increasing unforeseen risks.
- Declining trust in scientific institutions undermines pandemic preparedness efforts.
Nvidia
0.0
Arcee
N/A
Grok
N/A
Perplexity
9.0
- Nuclear arsenals modernizing while arms control regimes erode, verification and trust mechanisms weakening.
- Accelerating synthetic biology democratization outpaces global biosecurity norms and enforcement capacities.
- Multiple planetary boundaries transgressed, pushing Earth systems toward nonlinear tipping dynamics.
- Global food system concentrated in few breadbaskets highly exposed to synchronized climate extremes.
- AI capabilities advancing faster than governance, creating opaque, tightly coupled socio-technical dependencies.
Cohere
8.0
- Accelerating AI capabilities outpacing governance frameworks for existential risk mitigation
- Climate-driven agricultural yield declines in multiple breadbasket regions simultaneously
- Erosion of norms against biological weaponization in state and non-state actors
- Increasing frequency of near-miss nuclear incidents amid geopolitical destabilization
- Emergent pandemics exploiting weakened global health surveillance post-COVID-19 fatigue
Jamba
14.0
- Global nuclear stockpiles remain sufficient for civilization-ending exchanges despite arms control.
- AI safety governance lags behind rapid capability advancements in autonomous weapon systems.
- Ecological tipping points like Amazon dieback and permafrost methane release are accelerating.
- Food system resilience is undermined by soil depletion and over-reliance on monocultures.
- International cooperation on biosecurity is fragmenting amid geopolitical mistrust and competition.
Moonshot
11.0
- Nuclear arsenals expanding: China MIRVing, North Korea SLBM tests, INF treaty collapse
- Gain-of-function virology expanding beyond OECD oversight into 40+ nations
- AMR mortality now 1.2M/yr, livestock gene editing outrunning surveillance
- Global topsoil loss at 24B tons/yr, 90% loss projected by 2050 per FAO
- Arctic summer sea ice minimum below 4M km² for first time 2023
AI DISAGREEMENT ANALYSIS
3.87
STD DEV
DIVIDED
BASED ON 11 MODEL RESPONSES
The divergence in extinction event probabilities stems from fundamentally different weighting of systemic risk cascades, with models like LLAMA and JAMBA (scoring 14.0) emphasizing tightly coupled global systems and compounding failure modes across nuclear, ecological, and technological domains. Lower-scoring models like NVIDIA (0.0) and DEEPSEEK (6.0) appear to underestimate nonlinear interaction effects between climate disruption, technological acceleration, and institutional fragility, whereas higher-scoring models integrate complex systems dynamics that reveal amplifying feedback loops in global risk architectures. Methodological differences emerge in how models assess probability: some focus on near-term observable trends (e.g., QWEN's granular biosecurity and climate metrics), while others model long-horizon systemic collapse potential, leading to significant variance in risk quantification driven by divergent epistemological approaches to uncertainty and catastrophic risk assessment.
AI-GENERATED ANALYSIS — NOT AN OFFICIAL ASSESSMENT
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM
The Human Extinction Score (HES) is an experimental daily assessment
aggregated from leading AI models.
Each model is independently asked to rate the current human extinction threat on a scale of 0 to 20
and provide up to 5 specific reasons for its assessment.
The final score is the average of all valid responses.
This is not an official or governmental assessment.
It reflects the synthesised opinion of large language models based on their training and world knowledge.
Visit the [BRIEFING] page for more information.