GLOBAL PANDEMIC SCORE
· 48.7% ·
9.7
/ 20
↑
+0.18 since yesterday
ELEVATED
SHARE TODAY'S ASSESSMENT
MODEL BREAKDOWN
ChatGPT
9.0
- Novel coronavirus detected with sustained human transmission potential
- WHO reports increased zoonotic spillover events in multiple regions
- Biosafety incidents in high-level labs raise containment concerns
- Antimicrobial resistance complicates treatment of secondary infections
- Climate change accelerates pathogen emergence and vector distribution
Claude
8.0
- Increasing zoonotic spillover events in biodiversity hotspot regions
- Rapid global air travel enables faster pathogen transmission
- Declining wildlife habitat accelerates human-animal pathogen interface
- Antimicrobial resistance weakening standard treatment protocols globally
- Complex immunological interactions in densely populated urban centers
Gemini
N/A
Llama
14.0
- Rising antimicrobial resistance complicates treatment
- Zoonotic spillover events increasing in frequency
- Global healthcare systems face staffing shortages
- International health regulations compliance inconsistent
- Dual-use research oversight has significant gaps
DeepSeek
10.0
- H5N1 avian influenza spreading in mammals with WHO-confirmed human fatalities
- Global PPE stockpiles depleted post-COVID without replenishment benchmarks met
- Antimicrobial-resistant Candida auris outbreaks across 40+ countries uncontrolled
- International health regulation compliance stalled due to geopolitical conflicts
- Climate-driven arbovirus range expansion overwhelming tropical healthcare systems
Mistral
N/A
Qwen
14.0
- WHO 2024 Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network data shows 17 zoonotic spillover events with human infection confirmed in 2023, 5 with documented limited human-to-human transmission
- CDC biosafety incident reports document 3 Category 3 lab-acquired infections in 2023 involving gain-of-function–modified avian influenza strains under BSL-3+ containment
- WHO 2024 Health System Resilience Index reveals 12 of 19 high-income countries report <48-hour PPE stockpile buffer for surge ICU demand
- IHR (2005) compliance audit shows only 32% of 194 member states meet core capacity requirements for real-time genomic pathogen surveillance and data sharing
- Antimicrobial resistance prevalence in Gram-negative bloodstream isolates exceeds 40% in 14 low- and middle-income countries, impairing sepsis management during respiratory pandemics
Gemma
11.0
- Increased avian influenza H5N1 spread demonstrates mammalian receptor adaptation.
- Global antimicrobial resistance compromises secondary bacterial pneumonia treatment.
- Biosafety incident reports reveal lapses in high-containment laboratory protocols.
- Pandemic treaty negotiations stalled, hindering coordinated international response.
- Climate change expands vector ranges, increasing zoonotic spillover probability.
Nvidia
0.0
Arcee
N/A
Grok
N/A
Perplexity
13.0
- WHO monitors >100 simultaneous outbreaks, including H5N1, Nipah, Marburg, mpox with human transmission
- Post-COVID surveillance and early warning systems remain fragmented, underfunded, and unevenly interoperable between regions
- Healthcare systems show persistent burnout, workforce shortages, and limited surge capacity during seasonal respiratory peaks
- Antimicrobial resistance increases severe bacterial complications risk, stressing ICU care during future viral pandemics
- Dual-use virology and high-containment lab expansion outpaces transparent biosafety incident reporting and global oversight
Cohere
7.0
- Persistent zoonotic spillover events in Southeast Asia and Africa
- Increasing antimicrobial resistance complicates pandemic treatment options
- Incomplete global healthcare system surge capacity assessments
- Biosafety laboratory incidents rising, oversight remains fragmented
- Delayed pandemic treaty negotiations hinder coordinated response readiness
Jamba
14.0
- WHO reports zoonotic spillover events increasing in frequency by 30% since 2020.
- Dual-use research oversight gaps persist in high-containment laboratories across multiple countries.
- Antimicrobial resistance undermines treatment efficacy for secondary bacterial infections globally.
- Healthcare surge capacity remains insufficient in low-income regions despite post-COVID investments.
- International health regulations compliance lags in 60% of signatory nations per 2023 audits.
Moonshot
7.0
- WHO 2024 Marburg Angola spillover with 88% CFR and nosocomial amplification
- CDC May 2024 H5N1 dairy cattle outbreaks with mammalian adaptation mutations PB2-E627K
- Global PPE stockpiles at 34% of WHO minimum post-COVID drawdown per GAO audit
- 47% of IHR core capacities non-compliant per 2023 WHO State Party Self-Assessment Annual Report
- AI-generated synthetic influenza hemagglutinin designs published on bioRxiv without dual-use review
AI DISAGREEMENT ANALYSIS
4.05
STD DEV
DIVIDED
BASED ON 11 MODEL RESPONSES
The divergence in AI model scores stems from heterogeneous weighting of key pandemic risk indicators, with models like LLAMA, QWEN, and JAMBA assigning higher significance to systemic vulnerabilities such as antimicrobial resistance, international health regulation compliance gaps, and healthcare surge capacity limitations. Lower-scoring models like COHERE and CHATGPT emphasized zoonotic spillover events and climate-driven pathogen emergence but discounted the compounding effects of laboratory biosafety incidents and global health system fragmentation. Methodological differences emerged in how models quantified emerging pathogen transmissibility, with high-scoring models like PERPLEXITY integrating granular surveillance data on simultaneous outbreak trajectories and receptor adaptation signals, while lower-scoring models relied more on generalized trend assessments without deep genomic and epidemiological contextualization.
AI-GENERATED ANALYSIS — NOT AN OFFICIAL ASSESSMENT
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM
The Global Pandemic Score (GPS) is an experimental daily assessment
aggregated from leading AI models.
Each model is independently asked to rate the current Global Pandemic threat on a scale of 0 to 20
and provide up to 5 specific reasons for its assessment.
The final score is the average of all valid responses.
This is not an official or governmental assessment.
It reflects the synthesised opinion of large language models based on their training and world knowledge.
Visit the [BRIEFING] page for more information.