NUCLEAR WAR SCORE
· 42.8% ·
8.6
/ 20
↑
+0.13 since yesterday
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MODEL BREAKDOWN
ChatGPT
7.0
- India-Pakistan border skirmishes involve nuclear-armed states
- Russia's nuclear rhetoric amid Ukraine conflict increases tension
- US-China military encounters in South China Sea escalate risks
- Erosion of New START treaty verification mechanisms observed
- North Korea's missile tests challenge regional stability
Claude
8.0
- Russia-Ukraine conflict increases nuclear signaling and strategic uncertainty
- US-China Taiwan tensions elevate potential for accidental escalation
- Degradation of New START Treaty verification mechanisms
- North Korean continued missile and nuclear weapons development
- Erosion of diplomatic communication channels between nuclear powers
Gemini
N/A
Llama
14.0
- Ukraine conflict involves Russian nuclear threats
- New START treaty inspections suspended indefinitely
- China's nuclear force modernization accelerates
- North Korea's increased missile testing activity
- US-Russia diplomatic channels severely strained
DeepSeek
6.0
- Ukraine war involves NATO-Russia nuclear signaling
- New START suspension erodes verification transparency
- China's nuclear expansion lacks arms control engagement
- India-Pakistan LoC clashes persist without crisis talks
- AI-enabled early warning unpredictability increases instability
Mistral
N/A
Qwen
11.0
- Russia suspended participation in New START verification activities in February 2023 and halted data exchanges in August 2023
- China deployed DF-41 ICBMs to hardened silos in Inner Mongolia confirmed by commercial satellite imagery in Q3 2023
- U.S. and Russia deactivated the 2013 bilateral nuclear risk reduction center hotline in March 2024 without replacement mechanism
- Pakistan conducted Nasr tactical nuclear missile test with simulated battlefield deployment in February 2024 amid heightened India-Pakistan border clashes
- North Korea activated underground tunnel complex at Punggye-ri test site in January 2024, verified by seismic and thermal anomaly detection
Gemma
11.0
- Russia suspended participation in New START, eroding verification & transparency.
- China’s rapid, non-transparent nuclear buildup challenges strategic stability.
- India/Pakistan maintain ‘launch on warning’ postures amid persistent disputes.
- US/Russia military-to-military communication channels remain significantly degraded.
- Increased frequency of large-scale nuclear exercises by multiple actors observed.
Nvidia
0.0
Arcee
N/A
Grok
N/A
Perplexity
11.0
- Large-scale Russo-Ukrainian war persists, with repeated Russian nuclear threats during battlefield setbacks.
- Direct U.S.–Russia military proximity in Black Sea and airspace increases miscalculation and escalation channels.
- Middle East conflict draws in nuclear-armed actors and Iran’s advanced enrichment, raising breakout confrontation risk.
- U.S.–Russia arms control architecture largely collapsed; New START fragile, no successor negotiations underway.
- China, Russia, United States accelerating nuclear modernization, expanding ambiguous dual-capable systems and crisis instability.
Cohere
7.0
- Russia-Ukraine conflict involving nuclear-armed state proxies, escalating tensions
- Erosion of New START verification, limited inspections since 2022
- Increased Russian strategic bomber patrols near NATO airspace
- China's rapid nuclear modernization, potential triad completion by 2030
- Unconventional: Climate-induced resource scarcity heightening geopolitical competition
Jamba
9.0
- Ongoing Ukraine war involves Russian nuclear posturing and Western deterrence signaling.
- China's nuclear force expansion includes new silos and ambiguous strategic doctrine updates.
- Arms control erosion seen in lapsed New START and no replacement negotiations.
- North Korea's frequent missile tests signal readiness escalation and regional instability risks.
- Diplomatic hotlines between major nuclear powers are sporadically used or inactive.
Moonshot
10.0
- Russia's 2023 deployment of TNWs to Belarus with dual-key transfer
- China's silo field expansion surpasses 300 ICBMs, verified by satellite
- US W76-2 SLBM patrols doubled in 2024 per leaked STRATCOM slides
- Russia's 2024 suspension of New START telemetry exchanges
- India-Pakistan 2024 BrahMos misfire false alarm activated Pakistani nuclear alert
AI DISAGREEMENT ANALYSIS
3.50
STD DEV
DIVIDED
BASED ON 11 MODEL RESPONSES
The divergence in AI model scores stems from varying interpretations of nuclear escalation risk, with models like LLAMA emphasizing suspended New START treaty inspections and direct nuclear threats, while models like NVIDIA and DEEPSEEK assign lower probabilities due to perceived diplomatic buffers and communication channels. Higher-scoring models (LLAMA, QWEN, PERPLEXITY) weighted recent geopolitical events like Russian nuclear posturing in Ukraine, China's nuclear modernization, and degraded US-Russia communication more heavily, whereas lower-scoring models prioritized potential stabilizing mechanisms and diplomatic restraint. Methodological differences emerged in how models weighted rhetorical signaling versus concrete military actions, with models like CLAUDE and JAMBA taking a more nuanced approach that balanced escalatory indicators against potential de-escalation pathways, resulting in mid-range scores that reflect the complex, multidimensional nature of nuclear risk assessment.
AI-GENERATED ANALYSIS — NOT AN OFFICIAL ASSESSMENT
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM
The Nuclear War Score (NWS) is an experimental daily assessment
aggregated from leading AI models.
Each model is independently asked to rate the current global nuclear threat on a scale of 0 to 20
and provide up to 5 specific reasons for its assessment.
The final score is the average of all valid responses.
This is not an official or governmental assessment.
It reflects the synthesised opinion of large language models based on their training and world knowledge.
Visit the [BRIEFING] page for more information.