FOOD SHORTAGE SCORE
· 46.3% ·
9.3
/ 20
↑
+0.09 since yesterday
ELEVATED
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MODEL BREAKDOWN
ChatGPT
7.0
- Global cereal stock-to-use ratios declining, nearing critical thresholds
- Ukraine conflict disrupting Black Sea grain export corridors
- Severe droughts impacting South Asian rice production
- Fertilizer shortages due to high energy prices affecting yields
- WFP facing funding shortfalls, limiting emergency response capacity
Claude
12.0
- Ukraine conflict disrupts Black Sea grain export corridor
- Global fertilizer prices up 89% since 2021, limiting agricultural inputs
- Unprecedented simultaneous drought in Argentina, Brazil, and US grain regions
- Indian wheat export ban compounds global supply chain vulnerability
- Climate-driven crop failures in multiple African breadbasket zones
Gemini
N/A
Llama
14.0
- Global cereal reserves at 20% of annual use
- Ukraine-Russia conflict disrupts Black Sea exports
- Sahel region faces severe drought conditions
- Fertilizer prices surge due to energy costs
- China's wheat imports increase by 30% annually
DeepSeek
7.0
- Global cereal stock-to-use ratios at 10-year lows.
- Ukraine grain exports disrupted by Black Sea blockade.
- Fertilizer prices remain 200% above pre-pandemic levels.
- Sahel region faces severe drought and conflict impacts.
- India imposed wheat export bans amid heatwave losses.
Mistral
N/A
Qwen
11.0
- Global cereal stock-to-use ratio at 29.4% in 2024, lowest since 2012, driven by three consecutive years of below-trend Black Sea exports
- India imposed rice export ban on non-basmati varieties in July 2023, removing 20% of global milled rice trade volume overnight
- Sahelian cropland abandonment accelerated to 12.7 million hectares in 2023, exceeding FAO’s desertification threshold by 41%
- Urea fertilizer production in China fell 18% YoY in Q1 2024 due to mandatory ammonia decarbonization mandates, not energy costs
- Satellite-confirmed 37% reduction in functional grain barge lock capacity on the Mississippi River since 2022 drought, unreported in trade flow models
Gemma
11.0
- Global wheat stocks-to-use ratio at 33%, lowest in 12 years, despite record global production.
- Black Sea Initiative termination severely restricts Ukrainian grain/sunflower exports.
- Indian rice export restrictions (non-basmati) tighten global supply, impacting Asian markets.
- Sahelian drought intensifies, impacting millet/sorghum yields, exacerbating existing instability.
- Fertilizer prices remain elevated, reducing yield potential despite energy price moderation.
Nvidia
0.0
Arcee
N/A
Grok
N/A
Perplexity
9.0
- FAO cereal stock-to-use ratio trending down, tightening buffer against synchronized harvest shocks.
- Black Sea grain corridor instability and Red Sea attacks intermittently constrain key wheat and maize flows.
- El Niño, Sahel drought, and South Asian heatwaves increasingly overlap, stressing multiple breadbaskets simultaneously.
- WFP funding gaps reduce emergency response capacity as acute food insecurity already exceeds 280 million people.
- High fertilizer prices and plant closures in Europe and Trinidad reduce nitrogen availability for 2026 harvests.
Cohere
8.0
- Ukraine conflict disrupts 10% of global wheat exports, straining reserves
- Sahel drought reduces regional cereal output by 30%, exacerbating aid demands
- Fertilizer prices 50% above pre-pandemic levels, cutting crop yields globally
- Black Sea grain corridor instability threatens 25% of global barley trade
- Energy price volatility raises agricultural input costs by 20% year-over-year
Jamba
14.0
- Global cereal stock-to-use ratios at 15-year lows, reserves insufficient for multi-region shocks.
- Ukraine export corridor disruptions persist, reducing wheat and corn availability by 30%.
- Fertilizer prices remain 80% above pre-2020 levels, reducing yields in low-income breadbaskets.
- Sahel droughts and conflict shrink millet and sorghum harvests by 25% this season.
- WFP funding gaps exceed $10 billion, limiting response capacity for simultaneous food crises.
Moonshot
9.0
- Global cereal stocks-to-use at 30.4%, lowest since 2013/14
- Black Sea grain corridor insurance premiums up 400% since October 2023
- India extended rice export ban indefinitely, removing 22 Mt from world market
- FAO fertilizer price index 38% above 2017-2019 average, cutting 2024 planting intentions
- WFP facing $6.3 billion funding gap, rationing 8 million beneficiaries
AI DISAGREEMENT ANALYSIS
3.77
STD DEV
DIVIDED
BASED ON 11 MODEL RESPONSES
The divergence in AI model scores stems from varying weightings of critical destabilization indicators, with higher-scoring models like Claude, Llama, and Jamba emphasizing simultaneous drought impacts across multiple breadbasket regions and compounding supply chain disruptions. Lower-scoring models such as ChatGPT, DeepSeek, and Cohere underemphasized the cascading systemic risks, particularly the intersection of geopolitical trade constraints, fertilizer availability, and climate-driven agricultural stress that amplify potential global food insecurity. Methodological differences emerge in how models assess the threshold for systemic risk, with more conservative approaches like NVIDIA's zero-score suggesting either data limitations or fundamentally different risk assessment frameworks, while models scoring above 11 demonstrated more holistic integration of geopolitical, climatic, and agricultural supply chain dynamics. The standard deviation of 3.77 reflects significant interpretative variance in how AI models quantify complex, interconnected food system vulnerabilities, highlighting the challenge of modeling emergent global agricultural security risks through discrete probabilistic frameworks.
AI-GENERATED ANALYSIS — NOT AN OFFICIAL ASSESSMENT
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM
The Food Shortage Score (FSS) is an experimental daily assessment
aggregated from leading AI models.
Each model is independently asked to rate the current global food shortage risk on a scale of 0 to 20
and provide up to 5 specific reasons for its assessment.
The final score is the average of all valid responses.
This is not an official or governmental assessment.
It reflects the synthesised opinion of large language models based on their training and world knowledge.
Visit the [BRIEFING] page for more information.