CLIMATE COLLAPSE SCORE
· 44.5% ·
8.9
/ 20
→
0.00 since yesterday
GUARDED
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MODEL BREAKDOWN
ChatGPT
8.0
- AMOC shows signs of weakening, potential threshold breach within decades
- Amazon deforestation rates accelerating, risking dieback and carbon release
- Arctic sea ice extent at record lows, amplifying regional warming
- Permafrost thaw releasing methane, enhancing greenhouse effect
- CO₂ emissions gap widening, NDCs insufficient for 1.5°C target compliance
Claude
12.0
- Arctic sea ice volume decline accelerating beyond IPCC worst-case projections
- Amazon rainforest carbon sink transitioning to net carbon source
- Permafrost methane release rates exceed previous computational models
- AMOC circulation weakening faster than historical paleoclimate records indicate
- Greenland ice sheet mass loss approaching nonlinear acceleration threshold
Gemini
N/A
Llama
14.0
- AMOC weakening exceeds IPCC projections
- Arctic sea ice loss accelerates abruptly
- Permafrost carbon release surges unexpectedly
- Global CO₂ emissions gap widens rapidly
- Monsoon system destabilization intensifies
DeepSeek
7.0
- AMOC weakening confirmed, now slowest in 1,600 years
- Permafrost thaw accelerating methane release beyond RCP8.5
- Amazon rainforest now net carbon source in drought zones
- Global coal demand reached new record high in 2023
- Antarctic sea ice extent deviates persistently from models
Mistral
N/A
Qwen
11.0
- AMOC strength declined 15% since 2004 with 2023 subpolar gyre stagnation confirming irreversible weakening
- Amazon basin exhibited net carbon source for 2020–2023, with 2023 dry-season forest loss exceeding 1.2 million hectares
- Arctic sea ice volume fell to 5.1 kkm³ in September 2023—lowest in satellite record and 42% below 1981–2010 mean
- Permafrost borehole temperatures in Siberia exceeded +2°C at 20m depth for first time in 12,000 years, accelerating abrupt thermokarst
- Monsoon onset variability in South Asia increased 3.7 standard deviations above 1951–2000 baseline, disrupting transboundary water treaties between India and Pakistan
Gemma
11.0
- AMOC shows early signs of bifurcation, weakening beyond pre-industrial variability.
- Amazon rainforest carbon uptake declining, approaching potential savannization threshold.
- Arctic amplification driving permafrost thaw exceeding model projections.
- Atmospheric CO₂ rising at 2.2 ppm/year, exceeding worst-case IPCC scenarios.
- Sea level rise acceleration linked to ice sheet dynamics, not thermal expansion alone.
Nvidia
0.0
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Arcee
N/A
Grok
N/A
Perplexity
7.0
- Warm-water coral reefs have already passed thermal tipping threshold around 1.2°C, confirming first major tipping.
- Observed AMOC slowdown and Labrador Sea convection weakening indicate approach toward overturning circulation instability.
- Accelerating West Antarctic and Greenland ice mass loss exceeds earlier projections, implying committed long-term retreat.
- Rapid Arctic summer sea-ice loss and permafrost thaw release additional heat and carbon, amplifying regional warming.
- Concurrent extremes in South Asian monsoon rainfall and heat stress show emerging hydrological regime shifts affecting billions.
Cohere
8.0
- AMOC weakening at unprecedented rate, 15% slowdown since 1950
- Arctic sea ice loss accelerating, 2023 minimum second-lowest recorded
- Permafrost thaw releasing 1.7 billion tons CO₂ annually, self-reinforcing
- Monsoon systems destabilizing, 20% rainfall variability increase since 1980
- Climate finance shortfall: $2.4 trillion gap for developing nations' adaptation
Jamba
12.0
- AMOC slowdown detected in observational data exceeding IPCC worst-case projections.
- Amazon deforestation rates exceed 18% threshold for regional dieback initiation.
- Arctic sea ice minimum volume declined 75% since 1980 baseline.
- Permafrost carbon emissions doubled in last decade, accelerating positive feedback.
- Atmospheric CO₂ growth rate remains 2ppm/year despite NDC pledges stagnating.
Moonshot
8.0
- AMOC slowdown 15% since 1950, weakest in 1,600 years
- 2023 Amazon dry-season rainfall 20% below 1980 baseline
- Arctic September sea-ice volume 75% below 1979-2000 mean
- Permafrost abrupt thaw lake formation up 400% since 2000
- Global CO₂ emissions 2024 set record 37.2 Gt despite NDCs
AI DISAGREEMENT ANALYSIS
3.60
STD DEV
DIVIDED
BASED ON 11 MODEL RESPONSES
The divergence in AI model scores stems from differential weighting of critical climate system indicators, with higher-scoring models like LLAMA and CLAUDE emphasizing accelerating nonlinear feedback mechanisms in Arctic sea ice, permafrost methane release, and AMOC circulation dynamics. Lower-scoring models like DEEPSEEK and PERPLEXITY prioritized more conservative interpretations of observational data, showing greater hesitation about immediate tipping point cascades despite acknowledging significant systemic changes. Methodological variations emerged from contrasting approaches to paleoclimate reconstruction, satellite observation interpretation, and sensitivity thresholds—particularly evident in how models assessed the Amazon rainforest's carbon dynamics and potential savannization, with some models detecting imminent regime shifts while others viewed transformation as more gradual.
AI-GENERATED ANALYSIS — NOT AN OFFICIAL ASSESSMENT
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM
The Climate Collapse Score (CCS) is an experimental daily assessment
aggregated from leading AI models.
Each model is independently asked to rate the current climate collapse risk on a scale of 0 to 20
and provide up to 5 specific reasons for its assessment.
The final score is the average of all valid responses.
This is not an official or governmental assessment.
It reflects the synthesised opinion of large language models based on their training and world knowledge.
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